Europium and indium are essential for television and touchscreen technology, while rhenium is a critical component in fighter jet engines. Moreover, elements like lithium, cobalt, tellurium, and dysprosium are crucial for electric vehicle batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines. These elements, formed alongside the Earth billions of years ago, are running out. One suggested solution is asteroid mining. (This refers to the extraction of minerals and other raw materials from minor planets and asteroids in outer space).
What are the economic opportunities in asteroid mining?
Generally, asteroid mining remains hypothetical due to its extravagant costs. However, there have been similar programmes run such as NASA's OSIRIS-Rex mission which has recently brought back samples (Sep. 24, 2023) from a nearby asteroid known as Bennu. The project was estimated to be 7 years long and cost NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) $1 billion, while only returning 1kg of material to study the composition of the asteroid and learn about the start of the universe itself. Firms like Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industry are examples of firms acquired by other businesses in 2018 and 2019 due to the high research and development costs surrounding the industry. On the other hand, future mining companies such as Asteroid Mining Corporation are producing Space Capable Asteroid Robotic Explorers at Tohoku University, Japan. These low-cost, ruggedised, walking and climbing robots should be capable of undertaking asteroid, planetary and lunar exploration, alongside mining operations.
Despite the high price tag, the development of asteroid mining tech may be worthwhile as Asterank (a scientific and economic database of 6000 asteroids) has determined that mining just the 10 most cost-effective asteroids closest to Earth would generate a greatest profit of $1.5 trillion and others like 16 PSYCHES have been reported to contain $700 quintillion worth of gold. To put this into perspective, this is enough for every person on earth to receive about $93 billion.
This technology will ultimately also have environmental and social benefits. Asteroid mining would prevent the need for traditional mining which releases toxic chemicals into waterways and could also encourage the creation of more solar power satellites that could capture and distribute energy to the earth in one of the safest and cleanest versions of green energy. Furthermore, most of the progress on asteroid mining tech has been focused on extracting water, reflecting concerns about growing water shortages around the world. Moreover, asteroid mining would also reduce the number of inhumane and illegal mining operations around the world such as in the DRC, the source of 70% of the world's cobalt. Asteroid mining might be an alternative to traditional mining, potentially preventing child labour, fatal accidents, and general abuses of power.
What would be the potential impacts of asteroid mining?
The most significant impact of asteroid mining on the economy would be the resulting wealth inequality[i]. Astrophysicist Neil DeGrasse Tyson claims that one of the first trillionaires will be an asteroid mining mogul. Some argue that promoting asteroid mining tech could be the key to developing a future space economy in both tourism and settlement, however, many experts argue negatively, where asteroid mining would destroy the global economy for raw materials that are currently measured at around $660 billion. The quintillion dollars worth of resources would flood the market and cause a massive devaluation of global raw materials, which as predicted by researchers at Tel Aviv University, could result in a “global struggle for resources and power” and consequently lead to minerals devaluing on Earth by 50%.
Developing countries would be significantly affected due to a large reliance on mineral exports and a lack of sufficient resources to build their own asteroid mining operations. Specifically, asteroid mining might allow one company to become responsible for the trading of a single natural resource and become a monopoly[ii], threatening countries that rely on resource exports. For example, some asteroids possess up to $50 billion of platinum. In comparison, South Africa, the largest producer of platinum on earth, only mined about $3.8 billion worth of platinum in 2018. South Africa has benefited greatly from its platinum mining industry, employing 451,000 people, and producing 8.2% of its GDP. South Africa’s economic performance would falter and harm the lives of many South Africans.
The situation is likely to be even worse in other countries. South Africa has a diverse economy and a growing space industry that could compete in the future. However, other major platinum producers such as Zimbabwe would struggle if asteroid mining operations took over due to the inability of the country to develop space mining tech and compete. Furthermore, the DRC’s entire economy would be damaged by the possibility of obtaining cobalt from asteroids. While the individuals currently working in the mines would be safer, it also removes jobs for workers, especially as most workers in the industry would be low-income workers who do not have the skills needed to move to other sectors, creating occupational immobility[iii], thus, there would be a permanent loss of important low-skilled jobs for people in need of income.
Footnotes:
[i] Wealth Inequality - The degree to which wealth is distributed unequally in an economy or population.
[ii] Monopoly - A market structure where one seller or producer is the sole supplier of a good or service in a market.
[iii] Occupational Immobility - The inability of labour to switch between different occupations.
Bibliography:
Economics of the Stars: The Future of Asteroid Mining and the Global Economy - Harvard
